Comparative Foreign Policies of Iran and Turkey in Iraq and Their Impact on Regional Balance (2003–2019)

Abstract

This article examines the comparative foreign policies of Iran and Turkey in Iraq between 2003 and 2019, focusing on their strategic objectives, instruments of influence, and implications for regional balance. Following the collapse of Saddam Hussein’s regime, Iraq emerged as a pivotal arena for geopolitical competition, where both Tehran and Ankara have sought to expand their spheres of influence. The study employs a theoretical framework combining offensive realism, balance of power theory, and regional security complex theory to explore the motivations and mechanisms underpinning each state's approach. Iran has pursued a strategy centered on constructing a Shia corridor, enhancing regional deterrence through proxy militias, and curbing U.S. influence. It has leveraged the Popular Mobilization Units, the Quds Force, religious diplomacy, and economic interdependence to assert dominance, particularly in Shia-majority areas. In contrast, Turkey has prioritized the Kurdish question, Turkmen advocacy, water security, and economic expansion. Its engagement with the Kurdistan Regional Government through trade and energy diplomacy, combined with a proactive military posture against the PKK, reflects a multidimensional approach to influence northern Iraq. The article also analyzes how both countries have employed soft power tools, such as religious networks and cultural outreach, and evaluates their impact on Iraq’s political elite and post-ISIS stabilization efforts. A comparative analysis reveals significant divergence in military and religious strategies, yet occasional convergence in opposing Kurdish separatism. The study concludes that the Iran–Turkey rivalry in Iraq is emblematic of a broader contest for regional leadership and that Iraq's internal fragmentation and institutional weakness have made it susceptible to external domination. This rivalry has shaped not only Iraq’s domestic order but also regional alignments involving the Gulf states, the United States, and Russia, making Iraq a microcosm of Middle Eastern geopolitical dynamics.