Strategic Scenarios for Enhancing Urban Environmental Resilience in the Cities of Kurdistan Province, Iran

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the drivers and scenarios of urban environmental resilience in the cities of Kurdistan Province, Iran, employing the Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) approach in conjunction with Mic Mac and Scenario Wizard software tools. The research utilizes a descriptive-analytical technique, incorporating quantitative methodologies such as the snowball and Delphi approaches. A non-random targeted sampling method was employed to select a statistical sample of 60 experts with executive and academic expertise in urban environmental sustainability, whose opinions were gathered at various stages of the research. To ensure robust findings, the study assessed literacy levels, systemic perspectives, worldviews, and alternative metaphors related to environmental resilience within the study area. A 30x30 matrix was employed to evaluate different scenarios related to the research variables, using elite panels and supplementary questionnaires that included impact rating options (0 to P). The study identified key drivers and 16 influential descriptors, leading to the development of probable scenarios (-3 to +3) across four categories: desirable, acceptable, crisis, and disaster.  Based on these findings, recommendations were formulated to enhance the environmental resilience of cities in Kurdistan Province.