Water at the Center of Central Asian Geopolitics: Security, Conflict, and the Reconfiguration of Regional Power

Zharkyn Kalykova; Ardeshir Noorian

Authors

Zharkyn Kalykova Ph.D. Student in International Relations, Specializing in Security and Economics, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran Author https://orcid.org/0009-0004-3615-0569
Ardeshir Noorian Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran Corresponding author https://orcid.org/0009-0003-8328-0932

Keywords:

water geopolitics, water security, Central Asia, hydro, hegemony, water conflicts, reconfiguration of regional power

Abstract

Water resources in Central Asia, due to their uneven geographical distribution, the interdependence of upstream and downstream countries, and their close nexus with energy and food security, have become one of the determining components of regional geopolitics and security. The present study aims to elucidate the role of water in regional power relations, analyze the mechanisms underlying the emergence of water-related conflicts, and examine their implications for the reconfiguration of regional power in Central Asia. In terms of purpose, this is a fundamental research study, while methodologically it adopts a qualitative approach based on a descriptive–analytical method. Research data were collected through documentary analysis and the examination of scholarly sources, specialized reports, and regional agreements, and were analyzed using the theoretical frameworks of water geopolitics, regional security, and hydro-hegemony. The findings indicate that inequalities in the distribution of water resources, control over hydraulic infrastructure, and the conflict between the energy priorities of upstream countries and the agricultural requirements of downstream states have created a structure of asymmetric interdependence that provides the basis for political competition and bargaining. Furthermore, the collapse of the Soviet Union’s integrated water–energy management system, climate change, weaknesses in institutional mechanisms, and the involvement of extra-regional powers have increased the complexity of water relations in the region. Nevertheless, bilateral and multilateral agreements, together with the potential of regional diplomacy, demonstrate that water interdependence can be transformed into institutionalized cooperation. The study concludes that the future of the geopolitical water order in Central Asia depends on how power asymmetries are managed, the extent to which joint water governance is strengthened, and the capacity of regional states to establish a balance between national interests and the imperatives of collective security.

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