Artificial Intelligence and Terrorist Groups in the Middle East: A Strategic Analysis of Capabilities and Security Implications from the Perspective of Offensive Realism

Mojtaba Sadeqi; Ehsan Razani; Mohammad Fazel  Sadri

Authors

Mojtaba Sadeqi Ph.D. Student, Department of International Relations, Sha.C., Islamic Azad University, Shahrud, Iran. Author https://orcid.org/0009-0009-5078-2382
Ehsan Razani Department of International Relations, Sha.C., Islamic Azad University, Shahrud, Iran. Corresponding author https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1960-2581
Mohammad Fazel Sadri Department of Political Science, Sha.C., Islamic Azad University, Shahrud, Iran. Author https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2338-1830

Keywords:

artificial intelligence, terrorism, Middle East, offensive realism

Abstract

The emergence of artificial intelligence (AI), alongside transformations in the patterns of power production and exercise, has created new capabilities for both state and non-state actors within the international security environment. Given their historical adaptability to digital technologies, terrorist groups may also potentially exploit certain AI capabilities in areas such as cognitive warfare, content generation and dissemination, intelligence analysis, cyber operations, communications, and recruitment. The present study aims to analyze the strategic capabilities and implications of artificial intelligence for terrorist groups in the Middle East and to explain these developments from the perspective of offensive realism. In terms of purpose, the study is applied, and in terms of methodology, it adopts a descriptive-analytical approach based on documentary and library research. The findings indicate that, rather than creating material parity between terrorist groups and states, artificial intelligence can function as a force multiplier for these groups’ intelligence, cognitive, communication, and organizational capabilities. Moreover, the utilization of AI capabilities may reduce certain technological constraints, enhance the capacity for survival and influence, intensify strategic ambiguity, and alter the cost-effectiveness ratio of operations, thereby facilitating a form of asymmetric balancing in the non-material dimensions of power. Nevertheless, the available evidence regarding the practical and systematic use of certain advanced AI capabilities by terrorist groups remains limited, and a distinction must therefore be drawn among documented applications, potential capabilities, and future threats. Accordingly, artificial intelligence can be regarded as one of the factors contributing to the transformation of the Middle Eastern security environment. While preserving the material superiority of states, it simultaneously creates new arenas for technological, informational, and cognitive competition.

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