Future Studies of the Islamic Revolution with a Perspective on Contemporary Economic Developments in Iran

Abstract

In the effort to conduct future studies on the Islamic Revolution with an emphasis on the economic developments and issues of contemporary Iran, the following question arises: considering the existing economic issues and challenges, what will be the future of the Islamic Revolution? Drawing upon Ted Robert Gurr’s theory of relative deprivation to understand these existing economic transformations and issues, and employing the scenario planning method through the use of library and internet sources, the findings indicate that the existing sense of deprivation and dissatisfaction, although incapable of generating a wave of regime overthrow within the country, constitutes an Achilles’ heel that may provide the grounds for conspiracy formation and foreign intervention in the country. From this perspective, the continuation of economic problems may increase the costs incurred by the political system in governing the country. The desirable scenario in this context is the resolution and elimination of economic problems, which can be achieved through reliance on domestic capacities and increasing endogenous capabilities in the management of the national economy.