The Impact of the Taiwan Issue on China–Japan Relations

Abstract

The Taiwan issue, as one of the primary points of contention in East Asia, has had a profound impact on the trajectory of China–Japan relations. In recent decades, amid increasing geopolitical and military competition between Beijing and Washington, the strategic significance of Taiwan in regional and international equations has risen substantially. Consequently, the policies of both China and Japan have become more sensitive to this matter. The central question of this study is: “What impact has the Taiwan issue had on China–Japan relations, and how has it influenced the strategic approaches of both countries?” The hypothesis of this research posits that growing tensions surrounding Taiwan have deepened the rift and mutual distrust between Beijing and Tokyo, while simultaneously strengthening Japan's motivation to expand its security cooperation with the United States and other Western nations. This development could, in the medium term, lead to a restriction in economic interactions and the intensification of regional rivalries. Using an analytical–descriptive approach and examining the latest political and security developments in East Asia, this study demonstrates that the Taiwan crisis has not only exacerbated military pressures and threats in the region but has also significantly influenced the foreign policies and behaviors of Japan and China toward one another. As a result, Japan, while maintaining its traditional alliance with the United States, has adopted a more proactive diplomacy in the realm of regional security. Simultaneously, China has intensified its deterrent and warning policies against foreign interventions in Taiwan. Furthermore, this crisis has weakened bilateral economic relations and increased trade disputes, casting uncertainty over the future of China–Japan relations and presenting new challenges. Overall, the Taiwan issue has become a key determinant in shaping the future trajectory of China–Japan relations as well as the broader security order in East Asia.