Analyzing the Impact of U.S. Strategy in East Asia on Sino-Japanese Relations

Abstract

With the rise of China and the intensification of strategic competition between China and the United States, the U.S.-Japan alliance continues to serve as a vital cornerstone for peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region. The United States views itself as the sole hegemonic power in the current global order and perceives China’s ascent as a fundamental challenge and threat to its global position. This perception has prompted the U.S. to pursue a policy of coalition-building with regional countries and support for Taiwan's independence as a response to China's growing power. Structural realism, as an evolved realist theory, emphasizes external and strategic interactions by focusing on systemic variables. Structural realism assumes that states prioritize security as their primary objective. While maximizing security represents the extreme form of this view, a more balanced and moderate focus on security remains central to realism. The Taiwan issue, depending on the framework of interaction between China and Japan, continues to influence the outcomes of cooperation between these two major Asian powers. At the same time, the number of scenarios where the interactions between China and Japan are unaffected by the Taiwan issue is increasing. Taiwan's unique status creates a seemingly intractable security situation among countries that ought to be partners: a scenario where the most prudent course of action appears to be inaction. Currently, Sino-Japanese relations are, at best, unstable. Territorial disputes and grievances—both real and perceived—over unresolved issues from World War II disrupt a relationship essential for regional stability, further complicated by the presence of Taiwan. Historically, Taiwan has always been a significant strategic factor in the interactions between China and the United States, but Japan also appears to have developed an interest in Taiwan. This association with Taiwan could negatively impact Sino-Japanese relations. Since Xi Jinping assumed power in 2012, China’s foreign policy regarding Taiwan and East Asia has undergone significant changes. This study seeks to address the following question: How has the U.S. strategy in East Asia affected Sino-Japanese relations? In response, this study hypothesizes, based on the theory of structural realism, that the United States, in its efforts to counter and contain China and establish a new balance in the region, has adopted a grand strategy of securitizing China's surrounding environment. This strategy includes strengthening fleets around China, intervening in border disputes, creating tensions in China’s allied countries, supporting Taiwan, aligning with Japan, forming coalitions, and expanding multilateral engagements against Beijing. These actions have resulted in the reduction of China's political and economic influence, increased competition between Tokyo and Beijing, and heightened tensions in East Asia.