An Analysis of the Conflict between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh Crisis Based on Brecher’s Crisis Management Model at the Regional Level

Abstract

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is one of the most complex and protracted regional crises to have emerged following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Its consequences have extended beyond relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia, affecting the security environment and geopolitical structure of the South Caucasus. The present study aims to explain the conflict between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis on the basis of Michael Brecher’s crisis management model and to examine its consequences at the regional level, with particular emphasis on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In terms of purpose, the study is applied research, and methodologically, it employs a descriptive–analytical approach. The required data were collected through library and documentary research and examined using qualitative content analysis and descriptive–analytical document analysis. The findings indicate that the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis can be analyzed through the four stages of Brecher’s model: onset, escalation, de-escalation, and impact. At the onset stage, historical, ethnic, identity-related, political, and territorial factors created the conditions for the emergence of the crisis. During the escalation stage, perceptions of acute threat, time pressure, and the increasing probability of war reached their highest levels during the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, the 2016 clashes, and the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, while the role of regional and extra-regional actors in intensifying the crisis became increasingly prominent. At the de-escalation stage, mediation efforts and ceasefires failed to produce a sustainable settlement of the conflict, and the crisis entered a new phase in September 2023 following the military operation conducted by the Republic of Azerbaijan. At the impact stage, the consequences of the crisis became evident at both bilateral and regional levels. The findings further demonstrate that the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis has affected the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran through changes in the regional balance of power, the increased presence of extra-regional actors, threats arising from potential changes to transportation and transit corridors, and the consequences of population displacement and refugee movements. Accordingly, Brecher’s model provides an appropriate analytical framework for explaining the dynamics and complexity of the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis, while strengthening active diplomacy, maintaining balanced relations with both parties, promoting regional cooperation, and enhancing public diplomacy may contribute to managing the consequences of the crisis and safeguarding the national interests and national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran.