KMAN Publication Incorporation Interdisciplinary Studies in Society, Law, and Politics 3060-5687 In Press 2027 05 01 Modeling the Influence of the Islamic Republic of Iran on the Geopolitical Transformations of Energy in the Mediterranean Sea: A Case Study of the Oil and Gas Industry Modeling the Influence of the Islamic Republic of Iran on the Geopolitical Transformations of Energy in the Mediterranean Sea: A Case Study of the Oil and Gas Industry 1 15 EN Journal Article 2026 03 09 <p>This study aimed to develop and validate a model of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s influence on geopolitical energy transformations in the Mediterranean Sea, focusing on the oil and gas industry. This applied, non-experimental modeling study combined the DPSIR framework with fuzzy cognitive mapping and partial least squares structural equation modeling. Expert/focus-group judgments were converted into a causal matrix and analyzed in FCMapper and MATLAB to build scenarios and a fuzzy cognitive map. Measurement components were assessed in Smart-PLS using path coefficients, t statistics, and fit indices at the 95% confidence level. All measurement paths were statistically significant (t &gt; 1.96). Regional geopolitical and security developments were explained by integration, flexibility, alignment, and management (β = .67–.86; t = 13.01–18.09). Foreign policy and energy diplomacy were explained by cost flexibility, implementation flexibility, adaptability, and recovery/improvement (β = .49–.78; t = 8.46–14.42). Governance, project management, and institutional coordination were explained by planning, continuous improvement, mutual communication, and human resources (β = .67–.86; t = 12.87–18.05). Technological and industrial energy infrastructure was explained by scope, continuous improvement, mutual communication, and human resources (β = .66–.86; t = 12.70–18.00). Economic and financial stability was explained by decision-making method, decision-making style, intra-institutional relations, and legal arrangements (β = .45–.77; t = 7.61–13.77). The validated model indicates that Iran’s foreign policy and energy diplomacy are central strategic levers shaping its influence in Mediterranean energy geopolitics, while governance capacity, technological infrastructure, regional security dynamics, and economic-financial stability function as interdependent conditions for sustainable influence in the oil and gas sector.</p> https://journalisslp.com/index.php/isslp/article/download/508/1015